07.18.07
Daily Forex Trading Signal
Tomorrow we have a very busy day with quite a few reports.
1. Wednesday, July 18th, 2007 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
We are starting the day with UK BOE minutes. It is expected that the vote was about 6 to 3 towards the rate hike last month. If the vote comes out at 8 to 1 or 9 to 0, it will be possible buy on GBP/USD, probably good for 40 pips or more in the first hour of the report. It will largely depend on the price levels right before the report. On the other hand, if the vote was closer to 5 to 4, we may possibly see some unwinding in the GBP/USD, good for about 40 to 50 pips.
SUMMARY:
* Report: UK BOE Minutes
* BUY on GBP/USD if the vote was 8 to 1 or 9 to 0
* SELL on GBP/USD if the number will be 5 to 4
* If the trigger is hit, expect 40 pips or more in the first hour of the report.
2. Wednesday, July 18th, 2007 (7:00 a.m. New York Time) CANADA
Then, we have Canadian CPI coming out. The Canadian dollar has been extremely strong, and it is expected that the core y/y reading will be about 2.6%. If it reads at 2.7% or higher, I think we may see USD/CAD going down by 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report, and I think EUR/CAD may possibly go down by 80 pips or more in the first hour of the report. On the other hand, if the report reads at 2.4% or lower, it will signify much slower inflation on month-to-month basis, and we may see EUR/CAD gain probably 70 to 80 pips in the first hour of the report, and USD/CAD may possibly gain about 40 pips.
SUMMARY:
* Report: CANADIAN CPI Core y/y
* SELL on USD/CAD if the number will be 2.7% or higher
* BUY on USD/CAD if the number will be 2.4% or lower
* If the trigger is hit, expect 40 to 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report.
3. Wednesday, July 18th, 2007 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
Then we have U.S. CPI coming out at 8:30 a.m. NY time. It is expected it will read 2.2% y/y core number, same as last month. If it reads 2.3%, it think GBP/USD may possibly go down by 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report. If the inflation slows to 2.1% or lower, I think GBP/USD may sustained further gains of 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report.
SUMMARY:
* Report: U.S. CPI CORE y/y
* SELL on GBP/USD if the number will be 2.3% or higher
* BUY on GBP/USD if the number will be 2.1% or lower
* If the trigger is hit, expect 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report.
4. Wednesday, July 18th, 2007 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 10 a.m. NY time we have Bernanke talking and giving his semiannual testimony. Everybody expects him to be hawkish, and if he drops his hawkish tone, I think we may possibly see GBP/USD gain 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report. On the other hand, if he remains in a similar hawkish tone like before, most likely it will be too dangerous to trade but the way to trade his testimony will largely depend on BOE minutes and U.S. CPI reading. If you are new to this, I suggest you to skip the testimony because it may be a little bit too tricky.
That’s all for tomorrow. I hope you had a great day, and I wish you good luck with your trades. Thank you!
