07.13.07
Posted in Forex at 6:59 am by yeop
There are only 2 signal for Friday. Let look into it.
1. Friday, July 13th, 2007 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
Tomorrow we have U.S. retail sales coming out at 8:30 a.m. New York time. We have three numbers: we will have a retail sales headline number m/m, we will have a retail sales excluding autos m/m (that’s also known as core number), and will have an import price index m/m. All of them are expected to show much lower readings than last month. The main number to focus on will be the core retail sales, also known as “less autos”. It is expected to read at 0.2% versus a big gain of 1.3% last month. Honestly, this is not one of my favorite indicators. It had caused very, very messy moves before. However, I do think that the U.S. dollar is extremely oversold, and even though the fundamentals for U.S. dollars are bad long-term, U.S. dollar was bearish for a very long time. We have been selling U.S. dollars for the last two years. Despite of that, I think EUR/USD and GBP/USD have been a little bit overbought, and I think some of the big players that were buying the positions at much lower prices are waiting for reasons to take their profits. Therefore, I do think that if the core retail sales number surprises, and if it comes out at 0.7% or higher, I think we may see a move down on GBP/USD by around 40 pips or more in the first hour of the report. On the other hand, if the core retail sales disappoint, and if it comes out at -0.3% or more negative, I do think we may see further spike up on the GBP/USD and it may possibly gain 40 pips or more. It will all depend on price levels too. Also, you need to watch out or any conflicts from the headline number which is expected to come out flat at 0%, and you also have to partially watch out for the import price index conflicts. If there are big conflicts, you may want to stay out. Otherwise, this could be a decent trade as I think the timing is there for this report, and I think if the price will stay at relatively same level tomorrow as it is right now, I think it could cause a move of 40 pips either direction, if the deviation is substantial.
SUMMARY:
* Report: U.S. Core Retail Sales
* Sell on GBP/USD if the number will be 0.7% or higher
* Buy on GBP/USD if the number will be -0.3% or more negative
* If the trigger is hit, expect 40 pips or more in the first hour of the report.
2. Friday, July 13th, 2007 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
Then at 10 a.m. New York time we have U.S. consumer sentiment coming out. It is a private report, released by University of Michigan. It does not have a very good integrity. Sometimes it leaks, I really hate that report, and I will not be trading it so you might want to skip that report as well.
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07.12.07
Posted in Forex at 6:33 am by yeop
Let’s now talk about what is going on tomorrow, Thursday.
1. Thursday, July 12th, 2007 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) CANADA
At 8:30 a.m. NY time we will have a trade balance coming out of the United States, and we will have a trade balance coming out of Canada as well. I personally will be focusing on the Canadian trade balance since Canada is a huge exporter, and therefore Canadian trade balance is a lot more important. Because of recent things happening with the Canadian dollar and their interest rates, I think Canadian trade balance tomorrow is going to be one of the most crucial trade balance reading this year so I think we can see a very nice volatility. Basically, the trade balance is expected to slow from previous reading of 5.8 billion to about 5.5 billion. They are expecting it to slow because higher Canadian dollar is expected to mute the manufacturing activity a little bit. If for some reason the trade balance comes out at 5.9 billion or higher, it would actually signify that it increased versus previous month, and I think even on such small deviation we may see EUR/CAD going down by 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report. On the other hand, if the trade balance comes out below 5 billion, it would be bad for the Canadian dollar, and we may see EUR/CAD going up by 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report. Of course, the bigger the deviation the bigger the move probably we will see. Be careful with USD/CAD as we will have the U.S. Trade Balance at the same time in the USA.
SUMMARY:
* Report: Canadian Trade Balance
* SELL on EUR/CAD if the number will be 5.9 B or higher
* BUY on EUR/CAD if the number will be below 5 B
* If the trigger is hit, expect 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report.
2. Thursday, July 12th, 2007 (10:30 a.m. New York Time) CANADA
Then, at 10:30 a.m. New York time we will have bank of Canada monetary policy report. I personally will not be trading that report simply because we just got Bank of Canada report on the last interest rate statement, just a couple of days ago. I highly doubt there will be anything new on this monetary policy report, and I think watching it would be just a waste of time. Be aware of possible volatility during that time.
3. Thursday, July 12th, 2007 (6:45 p.m. New York Time) NEW ZEALAND
Then, at 6:45 p.m. New York time, will have a retail sales coming out of New Zealand. It is expected that New Zealand retail sales will come out 0.5% after a huge drop last month to -1.2%. That report has a little bit of important timing because in about a week, I believe on July 21st, around that time, Bank of New Zealand will be releasing their interest rates statement. There is about 20% chance that the New Zealand may hike the rate. So this retail sales would be highly scrutinized, and it may even give a reason to hike interest rates. Basically, if they come out at 0.3% or lower, it would be a low reading after last month low reading, and we may possibly see NZD/USD going down by 30 pips or more in the first hour of the report. On the other hand, if the retail sales come out at 0.8% or higher, we may see NZD/USD going up but 30 pips or more in the first hour of the report. How sustained the move will be will highly depend on the deviation, and the price levels right before the report will be crucial as well.
SUMMARY:
* Report: New Zealand Retail Sales
* SELL on NZD/USD if the number will be 0.3% or lower
* BUY on NZD/USD if the number will be 0.8% or higher
* If the trigger is hit, expect 30 pips or more in the first hour of the report.
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07.11.07
Posted in Forex at 3:11 am by yeop
1. Wednesday, July 11th, 2007 (9:30 p.m. New York Time) AUSTRALIA
We have only one report that is worth watching and possibly trading: Australian employment change at 9:30 p.m. New York time. It is expected to come out at 15,000 versus 39,400 last month; unemployment rate is expected to come out the same at 4.2%. If the Australian employment comes out at 30,000 or higher, I think it would be a relatively strong reading back to back, and I think we may see AUD/USD going up by 30 pips or more in the first hour of the report. On the other hand, if the Australian employment comes out at zero or negative, it would be a bad employment reading, and I think we may see AUD/USD going down by 30 pips or more in the first hour of the report. As always, the price levels before the report will be very important. If the price is too close to big support or resistant levels, the move may be partially muted so please watch out.
SUMMARY:
* Report: Australian employment
* BUY on AUD/USD if the number will be 30,000 or higher
* SELL on AUD/USD if the number will be 0 or negative
* If the trigger is hit, expect 30 pips or more in the first hour of the report.
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07.10.07
Posted in Forex at 2:29 am by yeop
We have 2 reports coming out that can make some significant moves.
1. Tuesday, July 10th, 2007 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
First, we have a UK trade balance coming out at 4:30 a.m. NY time, and trade balance could be a very important indicator when the nation does not really focus on the inflation. There are periods of time when inflation is stable and the government does not do anything with interest rates for several years. During those times trade indicators start becoming very important but when the inflation is very important - like it is right now - the trade balance takes a backseat and do not make any big moves. However, they do make some moves. The UK trade balance is expected to come out at -6.6 billion, that’s visible trade balance, there are three different components of trade balance. If the trade balance comes out at -7.2 billion or more negative, it would be the most negative reading on trade balance since May 2006. I think that could have some effect on the GBP/USD, and it may may go down by 30 pips or more in the first hour of the report. However, if the trade balance comes out at negative -5.999 billion or lower, basically -6 billion or less negative, it would be the highest reading on trade balance since the end of 2005, and it think it would be a nice surprise for the UK, and I think that would be good for the pound short-term so GBP/USD may possibly go up by 30 pics or more in the first hour of the report.
SUMMARY:
* Report: UK Trade Balance
* Sell on GBP/USD if the number will be -7.2 B or more negative
* Buy on GBP/USD if the number will be -5.999 B or less negative
* If the trigger is hit, expect 30 pips or more in the first hour of the report.
2. Tuesday, July 10th, 2007 (9:00 a.m. New York Time) CANADA
Then, at 9 a.m. NY time, we have Canadian interest rates statement. It is pretty much unanimously expected that Canada will raise interest rates to 4.50%, and if they do it is questionable what will happen because it is fully priced in. I think people will be scrutinizing some of the comments that may accommodate the interest rate decision. If comments are hinting towards possibility of another rate hike this year, Canadian dollar may gain some more strength. However, it the comments are a dovish and the Bank of Canada is saying that they really need to assess the situation after this interest rates statement, I actually think will may see a retracement or move up on USD/CAD and EUR/CAD.
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